County Planners Determine No Threat From Tropical Storm Arthur

Lightning

BARNSTABLE – On Thursday much of southern New England will see widespread showers and thunderstorms with associated heavy rain.

Localized flooding is possible.

During the day, the axis of heaviest rain will lie in central and eastern Massachusetts, but as evening approaches, the axis may shift back into the western part of the state.

As much as 1.5 inches of rain is forecast for central and eastern Massachusetts and up to 2 inches in western Massachusetts, with locally higher amounts possible if multiple storms move over the same region.

In addition, Massachusetts faces potential impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur.

At 2:00 PM EDT today, Arthur was located about 110 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida and moving north at 7 mph.

Maximum sustained winds were 60 mph.

Arthur is forecast to continue north over the next 12 to 24 hours and then accelerate north and east offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, becoming a hurricane by late Thursday.

The current forecast track brings Arthur about 150 miles southeast of Nantucket as a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, but bands of precipitation associated with Arthur may reach southeastern Massachusetts as early as Friday.

While the forecast track keeps Arthur well offshore, the “cone of error” still includes the Outer Cape and Nantucket, meaning that Arthur making landfall in these areas remains a possibility.

The exact nature of Arthur’s impact on Massachusetts will depend heavily on the storm’s track; the current forecast track will bring up to 2.5 inches of rain to southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands, but a more northerly track would bring heavy rain further inland.

As Arthur passes by southern New England, seas will build to as much as 10 to 15 feet southeast of Nantucket.

High seas could lead to a high risk for rip currents, mainly for southeast-facing beaches.

Rip currents are likely to persist through the weekend, even though the weather will be clear by then.

Wind is not anticipated to have a significant impact unless Arthur tracks closer to the coast than forecast; in that case the Cape and Islands may see sustained tropical storm force or even low end hurricane force winds.

At this time, only the Outer Cape and Nantucket are forecast to see tropical storm force wind gusts.

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Current forecasts indicate that Tropical Storm Arthur does not appear to pose a threat to Cape Cod and the Islands either through strong winds or storm surge over Thursday or Friday, according to the Barnstable County Regional Emergency Planning Committee.

The Barnstable County Regional Emergency Planning Committee  held a conference call at 1 p.m. Wednesday, July 2, to discuss Tropical Storm Arthur.

The committee is closely monitoring the storm and given the current forecast does not anticipate activating the Regional Shelter System.

If conditions change, the committee will re-evaluate the situation.

The National Weather Service states there is a risk of ocean swells increasing to 10 to 15 feet along southern and southeastern coastal waters.

Increased swells raise the risk of rip currents in the Saturday timeframe.

Beachgoers should be aware of the rip current risk.

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Severe thunderstorms and high winds are possible throughout southern New England, including the Cape & Islands, this afternoon and evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

These storms will bring heavy rain, localized flash flooding, and possible damaging winds. Tornados and large hail are forecast further inland, west of the Cape, during the storm.

On Thursday much of southern New England will see widespread showers and thunderstorms with associated heavy rain.

Localized flooding is possible.

The hurricane center states that there is a low probability of the cold front interacting with moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur, which could produce isolated but more serious flash flooding.

As much as 1.5 inches of rain is forecast for central and eastern Massachusetts and up to 2 inches in western Massachusetts, with locally higher amounts possible if multiple storms move over the same region.

Emergency Management officials say that Massachusetts faces potential impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur.

At 11 a.m. today, Arthur was located about 105 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida and moving north at 7 mph.

Maximum sustained winds were 60 mph.

Arthur is forecast to continue north over the next 12 to 24 hours and then accelerate north and east offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, becoming a hurricane by late Thursday.

The current forecast track brings Arthur southeast of Nantucket as a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning.

While the forecast track keeps Arthur well offshore, the “cone of error” still includes the Outer Cape and Nantucket, meaning that Arthur making landfall in these areas remains a possibility.

The exact nature of Arthur’s impact on Massachusetts will depend heavily on the storm’s track; the current forecast track will bring up to 2.5 inches of rain to southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands, but a more northerly track would bring heavy rain further inland.

As Arthur passes by southern New England on Friday, seas will build to as much as 10-15 feet southeast of Nantucket. High seas could lead to a high risk for rip currents, mainly for southeast-facing beaches. Rip currents are likely to persist through the weekend, even though the weather will be clear by then.

Wind is not anticipated to have a significant impact unless Arthur tracks closer to the coast than forecast; in that case the Cape and Islands may see sustained tropical storm force or even low end hurricane force winds.

At this time, only the Outer Cape and Nantucket are forecast to see tropical storm force wind gusts.

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The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida continues to post updates about Tropical Storm Arthur, a storm system that has been moving up the coast of Florida for the past two days.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina. But if the storm moves westward or increases in size, it will be upgraded to hurricane warning status, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Air Force officials ran reconnaissance planes through the storm system today to find out more data on the storm.

Recent information puts Arthur’s wind intensity at 50 knots and the storm has numerous rain bands.

According to the hurricane center, dry air is limiting the storm’s intensity in the short term, though the storm could become a hurricane by Thursday evening.

By Friday morning, according to National Hurricane Center models, the storm is forecast to have moved out to sea and died down.

The storm is moving northward along the Atlantic coast at 6 knots. It is expected to accelerate to the north and northeast over the next few days.

The Cape and Islands are expected to experience heavy rains as a result of the storm beginning on Thursday and continuing into Friday.

The Town of Barnstable has canceled its July 4th fireworks display as a result of the impending storm. But the town’s Hyannis Fourth of July Parade will take place rain or shine, according to Parade Chair Meaghann Kenney.