Triple A Predicts Falling Gas Prices

BOSTON –AAA forecasts that the national gas price average will drop to $2.70 this fall and has the potential to drop even more. That is 14-cents a gallon less compared to today’s price and more than a quarter cheaper than this year’s recorded high of $2.97 set in May.

“Cheaper-to-produce gasoline and relatively stable crude oil prices in August, combined with an anticipated drop in consumer gasoline demand post-Labor Day, means consumers will see savings when they fill-up at the pump this fall,” saidMary Maguire, Director of Public and Legislative Affairs. “However, several outliers can reverse this forecast, including crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and the mere threat of a hurricane.”

2018 gas prices have been significantly more expensive than 2017. In fact, the year-to-date-national gas price average ($2.73) is 41-cents more. Trends for year-over-year state averages include

Part of the anticipated drop in fall pump prices is due to the switchover to winter-blend gasoline in mid-September. The difference between summer- and winter-blend gasolines involves the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of the fuel. RVP is a measure of how easily the fuel evaporates at a given temperature. The more volatile a gasoline (higher RVP), the easier it evaporates. Winter-blend fuel, which is cheaper to produce, has a higher RVP because the fuel must be able to evaporate at low temperatures for the engine to operate properly, especially when the engine is cold.

In addition, the arrival of fall historically means a drop in consumer gasoline demand as summer road trips and vacations subside.

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