NOAA Predicts Quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2026 as Cape Cod Residents Urged to Stay Prepared

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November 30. According to the latest outlook released by National Weather Service forecasters, there is a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting between eight and 14 named storms this year, with three to six expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, one to three could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

An average Atlantic season typically produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Federal weather officials say the reduced outlook is largely tied to the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño often creates atmospheric conditions that suppress tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. However, forecasters noted that warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could still fuel storm development.

Officials stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms may track or whether any could threaten the East Coast or New England.

The last major hurricane to directly strike Cape Cod was Bob in 1991.

NOAA officials encouraged residents to review emergency plans and hurricane preparedness supplies well before any storm threatens the region.

The agency also highlighted advancements in hurricane forecasting technology, including improved satellite systems, drone observations, artificial intelligence-based weather models, and upgraded tracking capabilities designed to provide earlier and more accurate storm warnings.

Forecasters emphasized that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to turn a quiet season into a deadly one.