FILE – In this Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016 file photo, New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) runs after catching a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half of an NFL divisional playoff football game in Foxborough, Mass. Rob Gronkowski parties almost as well as he plays football, and now hes showing off both sides of his larger-than-life personality as a cover model. Gronkowski was selected for the Madden NFL 17 cover on Thursday, May 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)
Fellow football fans, it’s that time of year again.
Leaves will be falling, everything will have a pumpkin or apple taste to it and the days will get shorter. That can only mean one thing: it’s football time! And that means it’s time to start thinking about your 2016 fantasy Football Team.
Maybe last season didn’t go so well for you and this year you’d like to win it all. Or maybe you did so well last year that this year you want to keep up your winning streak.
Either way, Cape Cod.com readers will find the top 2016 projections as predicted by professional analysts based on last year’s results and recent observations made from preseason practices and games.
Quarterbacks:
For QBs the top projections according to everyone from ESPN and the NFL website to Draft Kings are Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers, Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers, and Russel Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks. Newton is pretty much the obvious choice as he finished as last season’s top scorer with a career high of 35 touchdown passes. The only con to selecting Newton would be that 21.2% of his throws were off target and he was below average for completed passes.
The league average is 63% and Newton only completed 59% percent of his passes. Aaron Rodgers, ranked seventh in QB points last season and posted a top ten finish in half of his starts, yet his 31-8 TD-INT ratio was his worst in a full season since 2010 and he was off target 20.5% of the time. Lastly, Russel Wilson was only off his target 12.6%, the league’s best mark. He has also been in the top three for fantasy points the last three seasons in a row.
Other strong QBs include Andrew Luck, yet his performance last season was not as strong as in previous years and Drew Brees (Saints), who lead the NFL in passing yards and completed 68.3% of his passes. Brees has also been in the Top 8 for QB fantasy points the last ten seasons in a row.
Running Back:
Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) led the NFL in carries and rushing yards last season and had seven top ten finishes last season. The only problem is his lack of usage as a pass catcher: he had only 30 receptions for 222 yards. Todd Gurley of the St. Louis Rams gained more fantasy points than any other RB last season, being beaten only by Devonta Freeman from the Atlanta Falcons. David Johnson from the Cardinals was one of last season’s top RB picks. He gained 658 yards and 5 touchdowns on 107 touches in weeks 13-17. Even Dallas Cowboys Rookie, Ezekiel Elliot seems like a strong choice according to multiple outlets due to his being a great rusher. All in all, it appears that RBs are strong really for anyone’s team.
Le’Veon Bell (Steelers), Lamar Miller (Houston Texans), and Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) could also very end up near the top of any fantasy team this season. For RBs it’s really up in the air.
Wide Receiver:
For WR, the Steelers’ Antonio Brown seems like the best top pick. He’s been the top scoring WR for the past two years with 1,834 receiving yards and 136 receptions. For those who like to play things safe, Brown seems for sure to be the best.
However, Odell Beckham, Jr. of the New York Giants ranked 7th in targets last seasons, 8th in receptions, and 5th in receiving yards, earning 5th in fantasy points, making him another strong contender. Julio Jones led with 203 targets and 1,871 receiving yards. The only con to Jones is durability. 2015 was the one of two seasons in which he played all 16 games within the last five.
DeAndre Hopkins of the Texans and Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys would round out most top analysts top five lists. I usually go for experience and consistency, which by the looks of it seems to be what all these picks have in common.
Tight-End:
At last one of our very own comes to the forefront, Rob Gronkowski ranks at the very top of almost everyone’s top 2016 predictions list. And why shouldn’t he be? He has finished in the top two spots for the last four seasons and has been in the top ten for 70% of those four seasons.
Another strong pick would be Jordan Reed from the Washington Redskins. Reed finished second among the TE picks last season, 5th in receiving yards, and sixth in targets. His only problem is durability—which recent developments at Patriots Preseason have indicated could be a problem for Gronk. Meanwhile, Greg Olsen of the Carolina Panthers is another strong pick as he handles more than 20% of Newton’s targets.
He also has ranked among the top ten in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TD’s in each of the past four seasons. Indeed, each of these picks could easily be strong draft choices.
Delanie Walker of the Tennessee Titans and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Royals round out most sports publications’ top five lists.
Kickers:
Yet another Patriot tops this list: Stephen Gostowski. Gostowski has been fantasy’s top scoring kicker for the last three seasons and has placed no lower than third in the last five. He’s lead the league in his position and while people say that kickers aren’t worth much in fantasy leagues, Gostowski stands as definitive proof of the contrary.
Other choices to consider would be Steven Hauschka from the Seahawks and Dan Bailey of the Cowboys. Hauschka posted eight top ten weeks last season and ranked among the top ten fantasy kickers the last three seasons. He also has converted 90% of his tries over the past four seasons. Meanwhile, Dan Bailey has gotten 30 for 32 attempts and converted each of his 25 extra points last season. He also leads the league in conversions with a 90.6% success rate.
D/S T (Defense/Special Teams)
For this particular grouping, the Seahawks appear to be the definitive vote for the top spot in almost every major Fantasy Football ranking. They’ve been among the top five for the last five seasons and have never finished worse than second in yards allowed for the past three seasons in a row.
If one also looks at their schedule, they can also see that the Seahawks are more than likely to sweep their first few games against the Dolphins, Rams, and 49ers. Next there’s the Denver Broncos, last year’s Super Bowl champions. They were certainly the highest scoring fantasy D/S T last year, but they also let that slip towards the end of their season, ranking 12th overall.
Fortunately, with Von Miller on their side, they should certainly have a stronger season. Third choice would be the Carolina Panthers. Last season they lead the NFL with twenty-four interceptions, 22 forced fumbles, and will benefit for sure from opening games against low scorers like 49ers, Vikings, Falcons, and the Bears.
*****
No matter what type of fantasy league you’re joining, definitely do your research before drafting. From fantasy football veterans to fantasy football rookies, selecting a draft can be a long process that requires your undivided attention. Happy Football Season everyone!
Christian Papadellis is one of CCB’s summer interns for 2016. He grew-up spending his summers on Cape Cod and is currently entering his junior year at Colby College in Waterville, Maine where he studies English Literature and Art History.
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