HYANNIS – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 40 percent chance of near-normal storm activity.
The prediction includes nine to 15 named storms, with four to eight becoming hurricanes – half of which could be classified as major.
“Although we are predicting a near-normal season this year, that is still a lot of activity,” said Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.
The average Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major.
According to the prediction center, there is still a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and 30 percent chancee of a below-normal season.
Bell said the outlook reflects competing factors.
“The ongoing El Nino is expected to help suppress the activity,” Bell said.
“In contrast, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected stronger than normal West African monsoon favor increased activity.”
The 2019 hurricane season marks the first time NOAA’s fleet of Earth-observing satellites includes three operational next-generation satellites.
Data from the satellites feed the hurricane forecast models used by forecasters.
Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season produced two devastating storms with the landfall of Florence and Michael.
In September, Hurricane Florence brought record rainfall and produced significant flooding in the Carolinas.
Hurricane Michael made landfall in October on the Florida Panhandle as a quick developing category 5 storm.
“These two storms resulted in close to $50 billion in damage and more than 100 lives were lost,” Bell said.
Bell said hurricane preparedness is critically important.
“Hurricane preparedness is not limited to near coastal communities as we saw last year with the inland flooding from Hurricane Florence,” he said.
More than 80 million people in the United States live in areas that could be impacted by a hurricane and only a fraction of those live along the immediate coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season is just underway and lasts through the end of November.
By BRIAN MERCHANT, CapeCod.com NewsCenter
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