HYANNIS – The Atlantic hurricane season gets underway today and forecasters are predicting a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, which runs through November 30.
Forecasters said there is a 70 percent chance of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 and winds of 111 mph or higher).
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA), an average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“We simply cannot predict this far in advance how many storms will strike, how much damage they will cause or where they will strike, so all coastal residents need to start preparing now so that you’re ready in case the storm threatens,” said NOAA Lead Hurricane Forecaster Dr. Gerry Bell.
Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more activity this year.
Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel storms as they move across the ocean.
“At this time El Nino does not look like it will have a suppressing influence, which means more activity, which is what we’re predicting,” said Bell.
However, forecasters said that the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty.
The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA will update the outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.
For preparedness tips for homeowners and businesses, go to ready.gov.
By JUSTIN SAUNDERS, CapeCod.com Newscenter
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